The fifth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) pool opens Thursday with Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter the 5/1 favorite among the 23 individual and “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (a.k.a. The Field) choices. But a newcomer to the pool should take plenty of money.
That would be Messier, who makes his KDFW debut at 8/1. The former Bob Baffert charge was ineligible for the first four pools due to that trainer’s suspension from Churchill Downs, the pool’s sponsor. But Messier’s move to former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen late last month made him eligible for the final KDFW pool.
Messier’s 8/1 odds put him as the third individual favorite, sharing that status with Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and San Felipe Stakes winner Forbidden Kingdom. Churchill Downs morning line author Mike Battaglia listed that trio behind Epicenter and Smile Happy (6/1) in the KDFW.
This fifth pool opens Thursday and runs through Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET.
That’s different from the four previous pools, which ran until 6 p.m, ET Sunday. This pool cuts off before the first Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series race: the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Messier is the likely Santa Anita Derby favorite
That is one of Saturday’s three 170-point Derby preps. Joining it are the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, where Messier is expected to be the morning line favorite.
The Robert B. Lewis winner by 15 lengths, Messier is one of nine pool selections expected to run in one of those three races. He and Forbidden Kingdom are the two to watch in the Santa Anita Derby. Smile Happy, Ethereal Road (50/1) and Zandon (20/1) are likely for the Blue Grass. Early Voting (20/1), In Due Time (50/1), Mo Donegal (20/1) and Morello (20/1) are expected for the Wood Memorial.
Other newcomers to this final KDFW pool are Ethereal Road, who finished second in the Grade 2 Rebel last month, UAE Derby winner Crown Pride (50/1) and runner up Summer Is Tomorrow (50/1), and Tawny Port (50/1), the runner up to Tiz the Bomb in last weekend’s Jeff Ruby Steaks.
You could have had Epicenter at 10X this price
Epicenter’s 5/1 favored odds illustrate his maturation as a front-row Derby contender. He closed at 52/1 in the first KDFW pool Nov. 28. He closed at 24/1 in both KDFW Pools 2 and 3 and 13/1 in Pool 4.
With much of the Derby picture coming into deeper focus in terms of contenders, the “All Other 3-Year-Olds” opened at a lofty 15/1.
2022 Kentucky Derby Future Wager-Pool 5
| Trainer | Odds | |
| Barber Road | John Ortiz | 50/1 |
| Charge It | Todd Pletcher | 12/1 |
| Crown Pride (JPN) | Koichi Shintani | 50/1 |
| Cyberknife | Brad Cox | 12/1 |
| Early Voting | Chad Brown | 20/1 |
| Emmanuel | Todd Pletcher | 20/1 |
| Epicenter | Steve Asmussen | 5/1 |
| Ethereal Road | D. Wayne Lukas | 50/1 |
| Forbidden Kingdom | Richard Mandella | 8/1 |
| In Due Time | Kelly Breen | 50/1 |
| Messier | Tim Yakteen | 8/1 |
| Mo Donegal | Todd Pletcher | 20/1 |
| Morello | Steve Asmussen | 20/1 |
| Pioneer of Medina | Todd Pletcher | 30/1 |
| Simplification | Antonio Sano | 15/1 |
| Slow Down Andy | Doug O’Neill | 50/1 |
| Smile Happy | Kenny McPeek | 6/1 |
| Summer Is Tomorrow | Bhupat Seemar | 50/1 |
| Tawny Port | Brad Cox | 50/1 |
| Tiz the Bomb | Kenny McPeek | 12/1 |
| White Abarrio | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 8/1 |
| Zandon | Chad Brown | 20/1 |
| Zozos | Brad Cox | 30/1 |
| “All Other 3-Year-Olds” | — | 15/1 |
The KDFW is available on most ADW platforms and simulcast centers. Past performances and real-time odds are available here.